“I’ve sometimes described ministry as creating the right spaces and letting the Holy Spirit do the rest.”

—Samuel Wells (The Christian Century, September 8, 2020)

I. We’re doing things a little differently this week in that we’re going to talk about what has been termed the “old normal vs. the new normal,” a rhetoric and a condition brought about by COVID-19. As if to illustrate this condition, these past weeks were marked by an important new report from the Episcopal Church (released on October 9). The data for the report came from the 2019 Parish Parochial Reports, which include information and statistics on attendance, membership, and finance, that every parish must submit yearly. Also released was a long analytical report by a writer and editor for the Episcopal News Service, Egan Millard, in which there is a great deal of useful information and commentary). Today’s Friday Reflection will use that ENS article as a catalyst and as a way to focus on some implications of the Report for the Episcopal Church; and today’s reflection will have two more parts:  Part Two will explore the “new” issues which seem to have come into in play, e.g. the “new normal” and the consequence of “normalizing decline,” post-COVID-19. Part Three will consider the Samuel Wells quote which began this essay, which will lead us to consider the importance of creating the right spaces in the right places, how we see the “landscape” at Saint Stephens, and how we’ve begun to “map.”

II. The Parochial Report is overseen by the Executive Officer of the General Convention and, as noted above, every Episcopal parish is required to complete and submit its report to the National office. The report focuses on a parish’s attendance, membership and finances. As The Rev. Dr. Molly James, deputy executive officer of the Episcopal Church described it in a press release from the Episcopal Church office for Public Affairs, “the data [for 2019]  tells an important part of the story of who we are as Episcopalians, and going forward the Parochial Report data will also help us tell the story of the remarkable ways the Church has adapted to the difficult circumstances in which we find ourselves.” (October 9, 2020). The 2019 Report includes the following data: (1) Fast Facts and Trends; (2) Baptized Members by Province and Diocese, 2009-2019; (3) Average Sunday Attendance by Province and Diocese 2009-2019; (4) Statistical Totals for the Episcopal Church by Province 2018-2019; (5) Statistical Totals for the Episcopal Church by Diocese 2018-2019; (6) USA Plate and Pledge Income Trends 2014-2019; (7) Average Pledge by Province and Diocese 2014-2019; and (8) Financial and Average Sunday Attendance totals by Diocese. Additional data comes from the Recorder of Ordinations and Registrar of General Convention. 

III. Here are some useful general statistics to provide a broader understanding of the breadth of the 2019 Parochial Report and the realities of the church today. (1)  There are 100 Episcopal Dioceses in the United States; (2) There are 6400 Episcopal parishes and missions (USA); (3) There are 1,637,945 active baptized members of the Episcopal Church (USA).

IV. In paragraph I, I referenced the Episcopal News Service story on the 2019 Parochial Report. It is worth noting that the Episcopal News Service is not the same as the Episcopal Church Office of Public Affairs, so the News Service story includes both commentary and a good bit of factual information. The commentary is useful and it brings us back to the”Old Normal vs. New Normal” rhetoric that has come to the surface as a result of COVID-19. Here is the first of three significant comments from the Episcopal News Service story:

“[The 2019 Parochial Report] is not a holistic depiction of the church’s health or success, and it comes with many caveats—it’s difficult to infer much from one set of data, and [some of the statistics in the report] conflict with each other. But the release of the 2019 data makes the picture clearer than ever: even before COVID-19, the Episcopal Church’s days were numbered.”

One of the many implications of this statement is that what was “normal” pre-COVID-19 may have a lot to do with why the Episcopal Church is contracting. Here is a second significant comment, which comes from the Rev. Dwight Zscheile, an Episcopal priest and a widely respected consultant on denominational decline and renewal, and is taken from the ENS story:

“The overall picture is dire—not one of decline as much as demise within the next generation unless trends change significantly. At this rate, there will be no one in worship by around 2050 in the entire denomination.

And here is a third significant comment from the Episcopal News Service story, including a quote from the Rev. Tom Ferguson, an Episcopal priest and Rector:

“After some fluctuation—including a period of stagnation and minor growth in the early 2000’s—the statistics seem to have settled into a trajectory of steady, gradual decline…If you have tons of folks coming to your free laundry, that’s great….But if you’re still losing 25% of your congregation, well, then in a few years, you’re just going to be a laundromat.” 

V. The story of declining denominational congregations, especially in what are called “Main Line” denominations (Episcopal, Methodist, Presbyterian Lutheran, Congregational, United Church of Christ) is not new. Organized religion in the United States has, in a number of ways, been taking a beating over the last three decades, at least. What may be new, however, is what I would call a “pandemic awareness consequence” namely, that the numbers have been on a downward spiral for some time—the past—and the numbers look grim for the future. Denomination officials and hierarchy, clergy, and lay leaders, seem now to have begun to pay more serious attention to what has been unfolding for decades. The two pieces from the Episcopal Church I’ve referenced in this first part of a three-part reflection, attest to this new and perhaps urgent awareness. And what this “new and urgent awareness,” as if in concert with the pandemic, is teaching us is that we will not find growth and vitality in our faith communities by doing what we have always done; that the “old normal” will no longer work.  Over the next month (on November 13 & November 27) we will reflect on what all this could mean for the Episcopal Church as we go forward, and consider the shape and substance of the “new normal.” This is an unusual and truly providential opportunity for us as church people ­and people of faith to think, to pray, to imagine and reimagine, and to be open, and, as Samuel Wells says, “let the Holy Spirit do the rest.”

—Father Peter Kountz